Navigating tomorrow’s threats – the evolution of vehicle security

In an era where automotive security is increasingly shaped by digital vulnerabilities rather than physical ones, the work of Thatcham Research’s vehicle security research team has never been more vital.

Led by Steve Launchbury, principal engineer for automotive security, with over 25 years at the forefront of vehicle crime prevention, the team’s expertise lies not only in identifying emerging threats but in developing practical solutions that help safeguard vehicles for insurers, manufacturers and drivers alike.

Vehicle crime has transformed dramatically, from screwdriver-wielding opportunists to fast-moving, tech-enabled criminal networks. Today, the focus is on future theft risk, combining real-time intelligence with forward-looking assessments to stay ahead in an increasingly connected car landscape.

“We’re in a fast-paced environment now,” explained Steve. “What looks secure at the beginning of the year could expose vulnerabilities by Q4. That’s the challenge we’re tackling head-on.”

Roots in physical protection

The late 1990s marked a pivotal moment in UK vehicle crime prevention. At the time, most vehicles had little to no standard security, and testing involved basic tools such as hammers and screwdrivers to simulate real-world attacks. It was clear the industry needed robust, standardised criteria for alarms and immobilisers.

That early work laid the foundation for today’s New Vehicle Security Assessment (NVSA) programme, a comprehensive framework developed by Thatcham Research to evaluate a vehicle’s resistance to theft, covering both mechanical protections and electronic systems.

The digital arms race

Vehicle security has evolved significantly since those early days. Traditional theft methods such as forced entry and hotwiring have largely been replaced by more sophisticated approaches targeting digital systems.

The vehicle security research team now evaluates a growing number of potential ‘attack surfaces’, including Bluetooth, Global System Mobile Communications (GSM), Near Field Communications (NFC) and Global Positioning System (GPS) interfaces. These technologies bring convenience for drivers but can also introduce new vulnerabilities.

“Modern vehicles are more akin to laptops than traditional cars,” Steve noted. “And like laptops, they can become vulnerable without regular software updates.”

With many vehicles expected to remain on the road for 15–20 years, maintaining long-term security is a key challenge. “When a car launches, the software in it might already be two years old,” said Steve. “Expecting that same system to remain secure a decade later is unrealistic without ongoing support from the manufacturer.”

To address this, NVSA continues to evolve, incorporating dynamic elements and drawing on collaboration with manufacturers, insurers and law enforcement. Insights from real-world theft data and the black market for illicit tools help ensure assessments reflect the current threat landscape.

Personalised security, proactive solutions

A major focus for the team is promoting security that can be tailored to the individual driver. Features such as Tesla’s ‘Pin to Drive’ and emerging biometric systems demonstrate how vehicles can be personalised to significantly reduce theft risk.

“These features can transform a high-risk vehicle into a low-risk one overnight,” said Steve.

However, not all vehicles are equipped with such technology. For drivers of higher-risk cars or those living in higher-risk areas, additional options remain critical.

“If a consumer owns a high-risk vehicle in a high-risk area, they deserve the option to safeguard it,” Steve explained. “That’s why we’re developing criteria to encourage aftermarket solutions that are both effective and non-intrusive.”

One area of development is a new generation of single-circuit immobilisers, designed to integrate seamlessly with modern vehicle systems without triggering fault codes. These systems can, for example, prevent engine start unless specific conditions are met, while remaining covert and difficult to detect.

“It’s about hidden protection,” Steve added. “The more discreet the system, the more effective it is against organised criminals.”

Addressing part theft and design vulnerabilities

Whole-vehicle theft is no longer the only concern. Increasingly, criminals are targeting high-value components such as headlamps and radar sensors, which can be quickly removed and resold.

“Ease of repair has unintentionally created vulnerability,” Steve said. “We’ve seen cases where thieves can access and remove a headlamp by unclipping the inner wheel arch liner. That’s a problem.”

While repairability remains a priority, Thatcham Research encourages manufacturers to design components with security in mind. This includes improving physical protections and introducing electronic coding to prevent stolen parts being reused.

Steve explained, “If a stolen component becomes unusable without its original vehicle coding, its value on the black market drops significantly, introducing a powerful deterrent.”

Tomorrow’s risk, today’s action

As vehicles become increasingly digital, electronic security is now the dominant factor in preventing theft – and its importance will only grow. With digital keys, connected services and over-the-air updates becoming standard, robust cyber resilience is essential.

However, technology alone is not enough. The team continues to apply rigorous, real-world testing alongside data insights to build a clearer picture of risk and ensure security assessments remain relevant over time.

This is particularly important in a changing vehicle parc, where older vehicles may lose manufacturer support and become more vulnerable. “We need to consider the full lifecycle of the vehicle,” said Steve. “Drivers shouldn’t be left exposed as systems age.”

A secure tomorrow

For the vehicle security research team, the mission goes beyond technical assessment. There is a deep understanding of the disruption vehicle crime causes, from financial loss to emotional stress.

“Vehicle crime isn’t victimless,” Steve said. “It affects people’s lives, their livelihoods and their confidence.”

Through continuous innovation and collaboration, Thatcham Research is helping ensure the UK remains at the forefront of vehicle security – adapting as criminals evolve and staying one step ahead.

Where security fits in the wider risk picture

While security plays a critical role in preventing theft and reducing claims, it is only one part of a broader and increasingly complex vehicle risk landscape. To reflect this, Thatcham Research has developed Vehicle Risk Rating (VRR) – its next-generation framework for assessing insurance risk in modern vehicles.

Introduced in September 2024, VRR marks a shift away from the legacy Group Rating system, recognising that today’s vehicles – shaped by advanced electronics, software and materials – can no longer be accurately captured by a single composite score. Instead, VRR provides a more detailed and responsive view of risk across five distinct pillars, each scored from 1 (lower risk) to 99 (higher risk):

• Damage – structural vulnerability and impact performance
• Repair – parts availability, pricing and repair complexity
• Safety – passive and active systems, including real-world ADAS performance
• Security – resilience of physical and digital protections
• Performance – speed, acceleration, weight and powertrain risk

These pillars are weighted against real-world claims data and considered together to create a comprehensive insurance risk profile. Crucially, they capture how different risk factors interact – for example, how advanced safety systems can reduce collision frequency while increasing repair complexity and cost.

Within this framework, security plays a dual role. It not only reduces the likelihood of theft through strong physical and digital protections but also provides critical insight into how risk evolves over time.

As a dynamic system, VRR updates as new data emerges from theft trends, repair experience, software updates and real-world claims. Security is central to this process in helping identify emerging vulnerabilities and ensuring that risk assessments reflect the current threat landscape throughout a vehicle’s lifecycle.

In this way, strong security does more than prevent incidents. It underpins more accurate, data-driven risk assessment, enabling insurers to better understand, price and respond to real-world risk as it changes.

More security insights available on AIQ

Thatcham Research’s Automotive Intelligence Platform (AiQ) recently published two articles exploring emerging vehicle security changes.

One reports on a product that replaces standard coin-cell batteries and incorporates a motion sensor that disables the key after a period of inactivity, helping prevent relay attacks where criminals amplify a key’s signal to unlock and start a vehicle. Learn more.

The other investigates Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) technology, how it operates, its capabilities, limitations and how it could be used to strengthen vehicle identification at UK ports and border crossings. Learn more.