Verisk analysis highlights importance of property-level data in understanding subsidence risk

An analysis of 34 million residential addresses in Great Britain carried out by Verisk, a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry, found that address-level information and property characteristics are critical to understanding long-term subsidence risk.

A recent Verisk analysis found:

• A home in London has around five times the modelled long-term claim likelihood of a home in Scotland.
• A semi-detached property built between 1837 and 1870 has more than twice the modelled subsidence claim likelihood of its 1980s equivalent.

Verisk’s UK Subsidence (Drought) model assesses more than 40 features covering ground conditions, weather, vegetation and property characteristics to estimate long-term relative claim frequency at an individual property level. Building age, type, construction, size, local ground conditions, rainfall patterns and surrounding vegetation all influence the likelihood of a subsidence claim. While risk is concentrated in London, the South East and the East of England, regional averages can conceal significant differences between neighbouring properties.

The Association of British Insurers (ABI) has reported that the average domestic subsidence claim reached a record £20,000 in the second quarter of 2026, up more than £2,000 compared with the same period last year. Insurers paid £72m in domestic subsidence claims during the quarter, highlighting the continuing financial impact of subsidence losses in 2026.

Ben Blain, Head of Property at Verisk, said: “Understanding subsidence exposure requires a detailed view of the property and its surroundings. Regional and postcode information alone may not reveal the level of detail insurers need to make informed underwriting and risk management decisions. As claims costs continue to rise, having access to property-level insights becomes increasingly important when assessing and managing risk.”

Rayno Mostert, Team Lead, Data & Analytics at Verisk, added: “Subsidence risk can vary significantly between neighbouring properties, even within the same postcode. Our analysis shows that factors such as building age, construction type, ground conditions and surrounding vegetation all play an important role in determining long-term susceptibility. Looking at risk at the individual property level helps insurers build a more accurate understanding of their exposure.”

Verisk’s experts also noted that repairing subsidence damage and addressing its immediate cause does not necessarily remove a property’s underlying susceptibility to future ground movement. Repairs may resolve issues such as vegetation management, drainage problems and visible damage, but other contributing factors can remain in place. As a result, a property that has experienced subsidence in the past may still be vulnerable to future ground movement under the right conditions.

The research further highlights the value of combining detailed property information with environmental and geospatial data to help insurers better understand and manage subsidence exposure over the long term.