Is 2025 set for a Subsidence Surge? Too soon to tell – but preparation is key 

In this exclusive contributed article, Innovation Group – Headline Sponsor of ILC’s Specialist Subsidence Conference 2025 – explores if 2025 is set to produce another subsidence surge and how to prepare in advance. 

As the warmer, drier days of spring arrive, it’s natural for those in the insurance industry to turn their attention to the summer ahead, and what it could mean for subsidence claims. While it’s still too early to say definitively whether 2025 will be a surge year, current weather conditions and early indicators suggest it’s wise to be prepared. 

At Innovation Group, we’re not waiting to see how things unfold. Our surge preparedness plan is already live, and our experts are actively monitoring developments to ensure we can provide fast, efficient support no matter what the season delivers. 

A delicate balance: conditions that precede a surge 

Subsidence surge events are typically triggered by the shrinkage of clay soils, which occurs when prolonged dry weather and tree root activity combine to remove moisture from the ground. This is why the spring and early summer period is so critical, it sets the stage for what follows. 

In 2018 and 2022, for instance, dry, warm springs preceded significant increases in subsidence claims from June onward. March 2025 was notably dry, and April continued this trend with unseasonably warm weather. 

However, despite the dry spell, the ground hasn’t yet dried to a critical threshold. Current Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) readings show that many regions remain relatively moist, meaning we haven’t yet reached the point where large-scale clay shrinkage is likely. The situation is comparable to a high jumper needing a dry run-up before the leap – without sufficient dryness, the risk cannot escalate. 

That said, SMD levels are tracking similarly to those seen in 2018 and 2022. If dry conditions persist through May into June, we could see the risk increase rapidly. On the other hand, a spell of wet or unsettled weather could delay or prevent a surge altogether. 

Looking back to look forward: historical perspective 

Understanding previous surge years can help contextualise current risks. Research carried out in 2006 (Cole & Marsh, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology) identified a strong historical link between drought conditions and surge events. Since the introduction of subsidence cover in 1971, significant surges occurred in, 1976, 1989–91, 1995–97, 2003, 2018 and 2022 

Smaller regional spikes also occurred in 1983/84 and 2006. These events followed periods of low winter rainfall and high early-year soil dryness. For example, winter SMD in 2006 didn’t fall below 150mm – a strong early indicator of what was to come.  

As of now, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology’s latest three-month Drought Index places large parts of the UK in the ‘extremely dry’ category. River flows – particularly in areas with hard rock geology – have dropped significantly, and reservoir capacity across England sits at 84% (compared to 90% at the same time in 2022). These signs suggest a dry base layer heading into the warmer months. 

The outlook for 2025: no clear forecast 

While past surge years can offer useful comparisons, long-range forecasts remain uncertain. The Met Office’s April – June forecast points to warmer conditions with near-average rainfall. Their May – July outlook shows potential for a ‘hot’ but slightly wetter-than-average summer, a combination seen in both surge and non-surge years. 

2017, for instance, was predicted to be a hot and wet summer and ultimately saw a quiet year for subsidence. However, the ‘hot’ summer forecasts in 2018 and 2022 did correlate with surge activity. By contrast, 2023 was also forecast to be warm but ended up being relatively wet and uneventful in terms of claims volume. 

Same 3-month period over the last 10 years 

So, while there are signs that resemble previous surge years, it’s still too early to confirm whether 2025 will follow suit. What is clear is that June and July will be decisive – and planning now is far better than reacting later. 

A summer of uncertainty: but not unprepared 

The Environment Agency has already issued warnings to water companies to prepare for a potentially challenging summer. While no regions are officially in drought, there is a medium risk if dry conditions persist without replenishing rainfall. 

In this evolving landscape, preparation is paramount. The groundwork for a surge may be forming, and while the outcome is still unknown, waiting for certainty is a risk no insurer can afford to take. 

At Innovation Group, we’ve made readiness a priority, ensuring that whether volumes remain steady or escalate into surge territory, our clients are supported with insight, expertise, and scalable infrastructure. 

If you’d like to explore how we can support your business this summer – rain or shine – we’d be delighted to talk, get in touch today. 

Email: salesandmarketing@innovation.group 
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